Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green UFC 291 7/29/2023 Picks, Tips, and Odds
On July 29, 2023, Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green will square off at UFC 291. Ferguson is favored on the moneyline at +285, while Green is at -375.
Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson‘s career record is 26-8-0. The 39-year-old, who weighs 155 pounds and is 5’11”, is in the ring. The conventional fighter extends 76.” Bobby “King” Green will compete at 155 lbs and is 5’10”. The fighter’s orthodox record is 29-14-1 (1 NC). The 36-year-old possesses a 71-inch arm span. Tony Ferguson connects on 5.07 significant strikes per minute, whereas Bobby Green connects on 5.97 significant strikes per minute. Ferguson makes 45% of the essential attempted strikes and lands 51%. “El Cucuy” and “King” allow 3.67 significant strikes per minute when defending in the Octagon. Green can block 62% of the blows directed at him, while Ferguson can block 58% of the important blows his opponents fire.
Tony Ferguson is the least proficient wrestler in the category, scoring a takedown 0.44 times per third. Ferguson successfully defends 66% of his opponents’ attempted takedowns while scoring a takedown on 41% of his attempts. Green succeeds 37% of his attempts to take down an opponent, failing 72% against him. Ferguson is the more skilled submission fighter, going for 1.0 submissions per three rounds, compared to Green’s 0.3 finishes every three rounds.
Tony Ferguson faced Nate Diaz in his most recent fight but lost via guillotine choke in round four, and 101 of the 217 total strikes Diaz fired throughout that match connected. Ferguson won this bout by connecting on 80 out of 172 blows. Diaz ultimately connected on 101 of 217 essential strikes for a rate of 46%. Of the 178 critical hits aimed at the head, he scored 71.
Conversely, Ferguson ultimately connected on 80 of 172 critical blows, or 46% of his total. 23 of the 106 significant hits were made at the head. Ferguson hit on all his critical blows, while Diaz landed 98% from a distance.
Tony Ferguson held the interim lightweight championship for the UFC. He is still up to participate in the forthcoming battle despite his persisting problems. Bobby Green has a 29-win, 14-loss, and 1-draw MMA record, including ten wins and nine losses in UFC bouts, whereas Ferguson has a 25-win, 8-loss MMA record, with 15 victories and six defeats in UFC fights.
Ferguson has gone five fights without a victory, while Green’s most recent triumph came in February 2022 over Nasrat Haqparast. However, Green’s luck could have been better, as he has fallen to formidable foes like Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober, and his most recent contest with Jared Gordon didn’t have a victor.
Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green UFC 291 7/29/2023 Picks, Tips, and Odds
Bobby Green faced Jared Gordon in his last fight, which resulted in a no-contest thanks to a headbutt from Green in round 1. Green only landed 73% of the big blows he tried from a distance, compared to Gordon’s 100% success rate. Green made 23 of 69 crucial strikes or 33% of his total attempts. He landed 15 of his 56 significant headshots. Gordon ultimately connected on 17 of his 53 major blows in the encounter. He connected nine of the 34 strikes aimed for the head, a considerable strike accuracy. Gordon nailed 17 of the 53 total strikes he threw, while Green ultimately connected on 23 of the 69 total strikes.
Green’s recent UFC fights haven’t gone well for him either. After a no-contest in a bout against Jared Gordon only last April in UFC bout Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes, he saw his winless run grow to three fights. Green believed he knocked Gordon unconscious, but video replays revealed that Gordon had been hit in the head, resulting in Gordon’s backward fall.
Green makes 5.97 critical strikes per minute, with 51.5 percent connecting. Green, who has ten knockouts and eight victories through submission, can take Ferguson by surprise. Additionally, Green possesses a respectable takedown defense; in the UFC, he successfully resisted opponents’ 72% takedown attempts.
Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green. In the lightweight class, Ferguson threatens everyone with whom he comes into contact. He has eight wins via submission and 13 victories by knockout. Additionally, nine times he has won fights by knocking out his opponent in the first round. Green has suffered four knockout defeats in his professional career, which is good news for Ferguson, a former interim lightweight champion. Ferguson has a 5.5-reach edge over Green, but the latter will make several accurate strokes and knock El Cucuy, whose career is obviously declining.
Prediction: Green wins via knockout.
Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
Main Card: 10:00 PM ET
Prelims: 8:00 PM ET
Watch on: ESPN and ESPN+
