Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles IDSCA UFC 291 7/29/2023 Tips, Odds, and Analysis
Gabriel Bonfim (14-0) won his UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) by submitting Trey Waters in the first round in September 2022 after going 12-0. In his promotional debut on January 21, Bonfim made a statement by dispatching Mounir Lazzez in 49 seconds. Ismael Bonfim, a brother of “Marretinha,” also competed with Gabriel on DWCS and UFC 283.
On Saturday, July 29, 2023, Trevin Giles and Gabriel Bonfim will square off at UFC 291. Giles is listed at +260, while Bonfim is at -315 on the opening line.
Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim enters the Octagon with a 14-0-0 record. The 25-year-old is 6’1″ tall and weighs 170 pounds. The reach of the conventional fighter is 72″. Trevin Giles weighs 170 lbs. and stands 6’0″ tall on the scale. The orthodox boxer has a 16-4-0 record going into this battle. The 30-year-old reaches 74 years old. Trevin Giles is landing 2.99 significant strikes per minute, while Gabriel Bonfim is landing 6.95 significant strikes per minute. Giles completes 54% of the important blows he attempts, compared to Bonfim’s 38%. Regarding the fighter’s defense, “Marretinha” takes 5.76 significant hits per minute, while Giles only allows 2.09. Giles can block 59% of the shots fired, compared to Bonfim’s 65% defense of critical blows against him.
Gabriel Bonfim is the more effective wrestler because he knocks his opponents to the ground 2.98 times in three rounds. In 85% of his attempts, Bonfim succeeds in bringing his opponent to the ground and protecting him from 85% of takedown attempts. In 55% of his takedown attempts, Giles pins his opponent to the ground, and in 73% of them, his opponents fail. The more skilled submission fighter is Bonfim, who attempts 6.0 finishes per three rounds, compared to Giles, who attempts 0.3 finishes every three games.
Gabriel Bonfim defeated Mounir Lazzez via guillotine choke in round 1 of their encounter in the Octagon’s last outing. In the end, Lazzez connected on 9 of the 13 strikes he released during that match. Nine of the 22 total blows Bonfim delivered during the bout were successful. Regarding critical strikes, Lazzez managed to land 9 of 13, for a proportion of 69%. He ended the battle by missing all four of his essential headshots. By nailing 9 of 22 shots, Bonfim statistically managed to land 40% of his important strikes. He nailed 6 of the 18 points directed toward the head, a considerable strike accuracy. Lazzez and Bonfim connected on all significant strikes at a distance in their respective attacks.
Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles IDSCA UFC 291 7/29/2023 Tips, Odds, and Analysis
Trevin “The Problem” Giles, a former Houston police officer, is 30 years old, 7-4 in the UFC, and 2-0 in his previous two fights, albeit his most recent victory was by a contentious split decision. The UFC veteran Giles (16-4) has made eleven trips inside the Octagon. Giles recovered from consecutive defeats to Dricus Du Plessis and Michael Morales by winning by unanimous decision against Louis Cosce. On March 25, “The Problem” defeated Preston Parsons in a decision match. Giles aims to defeat Bonfim inside the Vivint Arena to maintain his momentum.
Trevin Giles’s last fight in the Octagon was against Preston Parsons, and he prevailed by a split decision in round three. Giles eventually scored 61% of his significant long-range strikes, while Parsons finished with an 80% success rate. Giles made 55 out of 108 major blows, landing 50%. He ultimately succeeded in nailing 51 of 102 major headshots. In that game, Parsons connected on 42 of 95 crucial swings. He ultimately landed 24 of 77 of these big hits on the skull. Giles connected on 71 129 of his total blows in the battle, while Parsons connected on 62 of the 130 he tried.
Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles. The second-biggest favorite on the Salt Lake City Card is Bonfim. This one will probably be close on the feet. Bonfim is more likely to move quickly, land more blows, and be more fluid. But as we’ve seen previously, Bonfim’s propensity for being arrogant and starting brief fights fits into Giles’ favored counter-heavy approach. It should enable Giles to deliver the more powerful strikes. Giles is challenging to take down, so Bonfim will have a different straightforward route to his goal than he is accustomed to.
Nevertheless, I expect Bonfim to ultimately secure the takedown due to how explosive he is and that Giles may be out-technique on the ground. From there, Bonfim may gain crucial minutes with superior control even if Giles can fight submissions, which is far from a given Giles’ propensity to try to explode to his feet and Bonfim’s high-level jiu-jitsu.
This fight may be closer than the early odds indicate, but quality will prevail. If Giles decides to shoot, I predict that Bonfim will finally get a submit through his grappling or another guillotine defeat for Giles.
Prediction: Bonfim by submission (+125)
Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
Main Card: 10:00 PM ET
Prelims: 8:00 PM ET
Watch on: ESPN and ESPN+
