Houston Texans (4-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
As the NFL season pushes past the halfway mark, the Houston Texans head to Paycor Stadium to face off against the Cincinnati Bengals in a Week 10 encounter that has fans and bettors alike parsing data for NFL free picks today. The Texans sit at an even 4-4, while the Bengals hold a slightly better 5-3 record. Both teams look to solidify their playoff credentials with a critical win on Sunday, November 12, 2023.
The Texans’ offense has seen a spark with C.J. Stroud at the helm. His quarterback play has been a bright spot, boasting a completion percentage of 62 and a passer rating just north of 100. Stroud’s ability to distribute the ball effectively will be crucial as he faces a Bengals defense that’s been sturdy at home. However, the Texans’ running game, led by Dameon Pierce, has been less than stellar, averaging a meager 3 yards per carry. This could be an area of concern against a Bengals front that can stiffen up against the run. In the air, Nico Collins has emerged as a reliable target, racking up over 600 yards with a robust 17.5 yards per reception. His big-play capability will be essential for Houston to stretch the field and find cracks in Cincinnati’s secondary. The Texans will need to leverage Collins’ explosive plays and Stroud’s precision to keep pace with the Bengals’ offense.
Joe Burrow leads the Bengals with a completion rate pushing 67% and a solid passer rating of 90.6, though his production in yards per attempt has taken a dip this season. His knack for extending plays and making the right decisions will be key to dissecting the Texans’ defense. The running game has been dependable with Joe Mixon, who’s posted nearly 500 rushing yards. His 3.9 yards per carry will be critical to Cincinnati’s balanced offensive attack and will keep the Texans’ defense guessing. Ja’Marr Chase continues to be Burrow’s favorite target, with a reception average of 10.9 yards and close to 700 total receiving yards. Chase’s dynamic playmaking skills will be pivotal in Cincinnati’s strategy to exploit the Texans’ pass coverage. The Bengals’ offensive potency is no secret, and if the Texans can’t contain Burrow and Chase, it could be a long afternoon for Houston.
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Game Info
| When: | Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Paycor Stadium |
| TV: | CBS |
| Stream: | NFL Game Pass |
C.J. Stroud QB vs. Joe Burrow QB
Stroud‘s ascent in his rookie season has been a narrative of resilience and growth. With a solid completion percentage and an impressive passer rating, he’s demonstrating poise in the pocket. However, the pressure of a head-to-head against a quarterback of Burrow’s caliber will be a true test of his mettle. Stroud will need to maintain his accuracy and command of the offense to outduel his counterpart.
Burrow, on the other hand, has established himself as one of the league’s young elite quarterbacks. Despite a slight downturn in his statistical output, his leadership and decision-making under pressure remain invaluable. Burrow’s challenge will be to manage Houston’s defense and keep his composure, utilizing Mixon and Chase’s prowess to keep the chains moving.
NFL Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -280, Total Odds: 46.5
The Bengals are favored with a -280 on the moneyline, reflecting the confidence bookmakers have in their ability to capitalize at home. The point spread of -6.5 indicates an expectation of Cincinnati controlling the game, albeit with Houston keeping it relatively close. The total of 46.5 reflects the potential for both offenses to have their moments, though recent trends suggest a tilt towards the UNDER.
Houston Texans Betting Trends
The Texans have beaten the odds more often than not, with a 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games. However, the UNDER has been the trend in Houston’s recent outings, with 4 of the last 5 games not surpassing the total points line. Despite their evenly matched W-L record, the Texans have struggled on the road, which could be a factor in this matchup. Bettors might find value in Houston’s propensity to outperform expectations against Cincinnati historically.
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends
Cincinnati’s 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games demonstrates their ability to not only win but also to win convincingly. The Bengals’ prowess at home is evident, with a strong 10-1 SU in their last 11 games in their own backyard. Interestingly, Cincinnati has had issues covering the spread against Houston at home, which adds a layer of intrigue to the betting narrative.
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/12/23 Betting Picks
Analyzing the statistics and trends, this game has the markings of a closely contested affair, with both quarterbacks playing pivotal roles. The Bengals’ recent dominance at home cannot be ignored, and the Texans’ road woes may continue against a balanced Cincinnati attack.
Despite historical ATS success for Houston, the best sportsbooks and prevailing sentiment lean towards the Bengals covering the spread, particularly given their formidable home record. Prop bets on individual performances, especially for players like Chase and Collins, might offer enticing opportunities for bettors.
Free Pick and Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Houston Texans 17
