Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals 6/28/2023 Game Analysis, Picks and Previews
On June 28, 2023, at 7:45 PM ET, the Houston Astros will play the St. Louis Cardinals in MLB action at Busch Stadium in Missouri. The Houston Astros had dominated the AL West Division for the previous ten years, but the club struggled to stay up this year. The Astros avoided being swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles over the weekend with a 6-5 victory on Sunday night. With the Astros’ victory, they now trail the AL West-leading Texas Rangers by five games. In the first game of their series at St. Louis on Tuesday night, the Astros were trounced 4-2 by the Cardinals. Even though starting pitcher Framber Valdez pitched six innings, allowed four runs, and struck out six batters, he was defeated.
The Astros will give the ball to righty Cristian Javier in game two of this series. Javier has a 7-1 record in 15 games, including eight solid starts. Javier’s stats include an 8.3 K/9 rate, 3.25 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP. Javier had seven road starts, with four solid starts to his record of 3-0. His K/9 rate goes up to 9.2, his ERA a little to 3.51, and his WHIP down to 1.02. In his most recent game, Javier battled with command against the Mets. He allowed four hits, four runs, walked a season-high five hitters, struck out only one, and did all of this in just 2.1 innings.
Astros bullpen relievers appeared on 45 occasions with runners on base and 70 times in high-stakes situations. With 40 holds this season, the relievers rank 18th in the league. The bullpen pitchers for the Astros have pitched in 73 save situations and have a 62.5% save percentage. They had 32 opportunities to score but only converted on 12 for 20 saves for the year. Bullpen relievers in the year took over 69 runners, and 30.4% of them scored a run for their team. The Astros utilized 241 bullpen pitchers this season.
- The Houston Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against the spread.
- Houston is 22-16 in their road matches against the spread.
- The totals hung OVER in 3 of the Astros’ last five matches.
Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals 6/28/2023 Game Analysis, Picks and Previews
The St. Louis Cardinals dropped from first place in the NL Central to last place in just one season. After springing into life in the second half, the Cardinals won last season’s division. The Cardinals are now in last place in the NL Central after having a horrible season thus far. The good news for the Cardinals is that no club can easily win the division, and the group is still within striking distance of the division lead with little over half the season left. The underperforming Astros were trounced 4-2 by the Cardinals on Tuesday night as game one of their series with Houston got off to a terrific start thanks to Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery threw 6.2 innings and gave up one earned run, improving his record to 5-7.
The Cardinals will start veteran right-handed starter Miles Mikolas in game two against the Astros. Mikolas has a 4-5 record in 16 games this season, including six effective starts. Mikolas has an ERA of 4.23, a WHIP of 1.36, and a career-low K/9 rate of 6.3. Mikolas has made seven starts at home and has a record of 1-2, with two solid outings. His ERA rises to 4.97 at home, his K/9 rises to 7.6, and his WHIP marginally drops to 1.34. Mikolas’ most recent start saw him bounce back from two subpar performances to complete seven innings in a 3-0 defeat to the Nationals while allowing just eight hits and two runs.
Bullpen pitchers for St. Louis have an inherited scoring percentage of 27.5% on 138 inherited runners. They faced high-risk scenarios for their bullpen relievers 88 times and 86 times with base runners. The Cardinals had 72 chances to save, but only 38 were successful (they missed 15). With a save percentage of 55.9% and 232 relievers used this season, they are ranked 24th in the league. St. Louis’ bullpen relievers took the mound in 34 save opportunities, recording 19 saves.
- St Louis is 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Cardinals are 19-22 in their road matches against the spread.
- The totals went OVER in 1 of the St. Louis Cardinals’ last five matches.
Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals. The MLB pick for this game is the Houston Astros. Although Houston only went 3-7 in their previous 10 games coming into this series, they were generally more dependable away from home this year. The Astros had a 0.250 hitting average away from home this season, but in the 37 games before this series, they showed their power by collecting 113 extra-base hits. They have hit 22 home runs in their previous 15 away games and could have some success against Cardinals starter Mikolas, who has had trouble getting out of jams this season. This season, the Cardinals have allowed the 23rd-fewest runs per game, and they allow around one run more per game at home than on the road.
In this series, the Cardinals had a 10-game losing run (3-7) at home. Additionally, Mikolas’ previous four starts for the Cardinals resulted in a loss. Expect Javier to quiet the Cardinals’ bats in game two of this series and the Astros to dominate. It is anticipated that the St. Louis Cardinals will triumph 7-4.
MLB Starting Time: 7:45 PM ET
Location: Busch Stadium, MO
Date: Wednesday, June 28, 2023
TV: MLB Network
MLB Odds: St. Louis Cardinals -120
MLB Totals: 9
