UFC 304 Betting Predictions: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 7/27/2024
As the UFC stages its interim heavyweight title bout at UFC 304, fans and bettors alike are gearing up for an electrifying clash between Tom Aspinall and Curtis “Razor” Blaydes. Set for Saturday, July 27, 2024, this high-stakes matchup not only promises intense action but also presents intriguing opportunities for live betting. Taking place at the Co-op Live in Manchester, England, this fight will be showcased on ESPN+, featuring two top contenders with impressive track records. Aspinall enters as the favorite with a record of 14-3-0, facing Blaydes who holds an 18-4-0 (1 NC) record, making this a pivotal fight for both their careers and for bettors seeking the best live betting edges.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Game Info
| When: | Saturday, July 27, 2024 at 10:00 PM ET |
| Where: | Co-op Live, Manchester, England, UK |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Tom Aspinall Analysis
Tom Aspinall with a fighting record of 14-3-0 has been a prominent figure within the UFC heavyweight category. In the striking department he is especially dangerous scoring an average of 7.72 significant strikes per minute with a 66% striking accuracy. This offense is supported by his grappling as Aspinall is a very functional takedown artist with a perfect takedown accuracy and defense percentage values that would rate him at 3.46 takedowns and 1.7 submissions in a 15 minute span. His average fight time of 2 minutes and 13 seconds speaks a lot about how he likes to dish out knockouts and as seen in his fight with Pavlovich. The fast-paced standup striking accuracy matched with potent ground game poses a problem for Blaydes which can affect the ending of the fight
Curtis Blaydes Analysis
Curtis Blaydes steps into this bout with a wealth of experience in his poise and sportsmanship, and a moniker that reflects his surgical accuracy in and out of the cage. In his statistics view, he demonstrates an impressive density of significant strikes per minute of 3.53 at 50% accuracy; though his striking defense is lower than Aspinall’s at 59%, his grappling is another story. Blaydes also gets 5.72 takedowns per 15 min with a 53% effectiveness and a takedown defense of 31% which Aspinall may take advantage of. The last victory against Almeida portrayed his tenacity as well as how he executed his fights. The strategy for Blaydes will be in his experience and in how he has a higher takedown rate against Aspinall, possibly slowing and tiring Aspinall out in the process.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Stats
| Aspinall | Blaydes | |
| Wins/Losses/Draws | 14-3-0 | 18-4-0 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 2:10 | 9:02 |
| Height | 6′ 5″ | 6′ 4″ |
| Weight | 256 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach | 78″ | 80″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed per Min. | 7.72 | 3.53 |
| Striking Accuracy | 66% | 50% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Min. | 2.77 | 1.83 |
| Defense | 66% | 59% |
| Takedowns Average/15 min. | 3.46 | 5.72 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 100% | 53% |
| Takedown Defense | 100% | 31% |
| Submission Average/15 min. | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Betting Picks
Assessing the dynamics of this bout, Tom Aspinall appears to have the upper hand in terms of striking power and efficiency, as well as grappling defense. His ability to dispatch opponents quickly and efficiently might be crucial in a matchup against a durable and strategic fighter like Blaydes. Given Aspinall’s aggressive style and superior metrics in both striking and grappling, the betting odds favoring him at -250 seem justified. However, the value in Blaydes should not be underestimated, especially with his experience and grappling volume which could turn the fight in later rounds if he withstands the early onslaught.
Given these considerations, the recommendation leans towards betting on Tom Aspinall for the win, primarily due to his explosive power and superior statistical advantages in key areas. However, bettors should keep an eye on the odds movement and consider the potential for Blaydes to exceed expectations, especially as a resilient underdog with a proven track record.
Free Pick: Tom Aspinall -250
UFC 304 not only promises to be a spectacle of high-level MMA but also offers bettors a compelling canvas for making informed choices. With detailed analyses of both fighters’ strengths and potential game plans, those looking to engage in UFC 304 free picks and odds will find ample opportunity to capitalize on these insights. Whether you’re rooting for the swift precision of Aspinall or the enduring tenacity of Blaydes, this bout is poised to be a highlight of the UFC calendar.
